Weekly E-Mail Newsletter

The purpose of the newsletter is to remain informed of current consumer topics and pending economic indicators that affect the financial and real estate markets of the Seattle Area.

John Bratmon

President/Broker

Towne Financial Corp.

7975 Leary Way

Redmond, WA 98052

425.885.1430

To contact me, to assist you with your mortgage needs, Click Here

To find out what your real property may be worth in the current market, Click Here

U.S. Treasury Bonds

Maturity

Yield

Last
Week

Last
Month

5 Year	4.76	4.70	4.54
10 Year	4.75	4.68	4.58
30 Year	4.74	4.65	4.67

Treasury Market Summary:

10 year yields have risen to 4.73% -- a 20 month high. Expectations for Fed policy tightening given rising inflationary pressures may be partly to blame as reduced demand is the bottom line. Whether its tied to reduced mortgage activity (less demand for Treasurys to hedge with) or a fall off in foreign demand is largely guesswork but weighing heavily on long term yields. Friday's release of the February employment report provides risk for a late week jolt -- in either direction. The low 4.7% unemployment rate and the back to back 0.4% gains in earnings suggests caution as more strong data -- payrolls, unemployment or earnings -- argues for continued Fed tightening.

The outlook for long term yields in the quarter ahead includes increased upward risk from pricing pressures as continued Fed tightening also helps to push longer term yields higher. The inflation outlook includes continued pressure on core CPI as energy prices risk a lagged response and reduced economic excesses (i.e. unemployment) provide the cyclical pressure. A 5% 10-year yield may wait for mid/late 2006 but higher yields have been repeated denied over the last few years. Tremendous foreign buying in the Treasury market has left a large drag on long term yields as the market's confidence in a calm core inflation trend leaves 10 year yields below 2 yr yields near 4.6%. When and by what amount global demand cools off is the key uncertainty to the long term yield outlook as the market seems convinced that the Fed will hold off the core inflation pressure.

Economic Indicators for this week that could impact the mortgage or real estate markets include...

Retail Sales	Mar 14
Retail Sales ex-auto	Mar 14
Business Inventories	Mar 14
Export Prices ex-ag.	Mar 15
Import Prices ex-oil	Mar 15

Determining Your Offer Price

Sales in the Public Record - The most accessible source of information on comparable sales is the public record. When someone buys a home the property is deeded from the seller to the buyer. In most circumstances, this deed is recorded at the local county recorder’s office. They combine sales data with information already known about the property so they can assess property taxes correctly.

Provided there have been no additions to the property, the information available from the public record is usually correct regarding sales price, square footage, and numbers of rooms. This makes it easy to use the public record as a source of data for comparable sale information.

Accessing the data is another matter, at least for the general public. Realtors can generally look up this information through title insurance companies. The title companies either compile the data directly from the county recorder’s office or purchase if from other companies. One problem with the public record is that it tends to run at least six to eight weeks behind. Add another four to six weeks for the typical escrow period and you can see the data is not current. The most current information is the most valuable.

Sales in the Multiple Listing Service - Most of the public is aware that the Multiple Listing Service is a private resource where Realtors list properties available for sale.

Once a property is sold and the transaction has closed, the selling price is posted to the listing in the Multiple Listing Service. Over time, it has become a huge database on past sales, containing much more information on individual homes than can be gleaned from the public record. This information is only available to real estate agents who are members of the local Multiple Listing Service. Your agent will provide you with this data to help determine your offer price.

Pending Transactions - The most valuable information would be the most current, of course. A sale last week has more validity in helping you determine a purchase price than a sale from six months ago. The problem is that there is no actual record of the sales price until the transaction is completed. The information is not available in the public record because no deed has yet been recorded.

Once a property is sold, it becomes a "pending sale" and all pricing information is removed from the listing. Prices are not posted until it becomes a "closed sale." This protects the seller in case the transaction falls apart and the property is placed back on the market. It would give an unfair advantage to future potential buyers if they already knew what price the seller had been willing to accept in the past.

However, if a Realtor has a reason to know the sales price, they can usually find out through professional courtesy. Also, some real estate brokerages post sales information on a transaction board in their office.

Conclusions - Gathering and analyzing information from comparable sales helps to establish the range of prices you should consider when making an offer to buy a home. More weight should be given to the most recent sales, but even so, you need to do a bit more analysis before setting upon the price you will offer. That is because you also need to consider the condition of the property, improvements, the current market, and the circumstances behind the seller’s decision to sell.

The purpose of this newsletter is to stimulate thought for my clients and those professionals with whom I network. If you are a real estate, estate planning, taxation, financial planning or insurance professional receiving this newsletter, please call my office and introduce yourself to me. I'm always seeking to grow my referral network, and to expose more service professionals to my client base. I specialize in helping those individuals looking to buy, sell or refinance real property in the Pacific Northwest Area.

By The Way: Most Lenders spend the majority of their time prospecting for new clients (through ads, cold calling, flyers, etc.). That's not they way I do things. My business is based almost exclusively by referrals from my Preferred Partners (Real Estate and Professional Consultants), and my current & past clients. Because of this, I devote the majority of my time to serving the needs of my clients before, during and after their transaction. As long as they keep referring their friends, neighbors, family members & clients to me, I don't have to spend my time prospecting for clients, which means I can spend my time doing an even better job for them. If you know someone who'd appreciate the services I provide, please call me with their name & phone number, and I'll be happy to follow up with them.

Visit John at www.NorthwestMortgageSolutions.com

John Bratmon of Towne Financial Corporation is a Washington State licensed Mortgage Broker. John provides Conventional, Non Conforming, Jumbo, and Foreign National Loans. He assists clients with excellent credit, less than perfect credit and no credit. John also assists individuals who are self-employed and require both full documentation and no documentation loans. John provides financing assistance to whose who are buying, selling or refinancing real estate. If you would like to stop receiving these e-mail newsletters, simply e-mail him your request at Johnb@townemortgage.net; it will be immediately honored.